News

ABP News UP & Bihar Opinion Poll Data Survey rates Prime Minister Modi as 'Good'

ABP News, today released the opinion poll survey results for the two most important states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, sharing the unique perspective of the political scenario prevailing within the two most important Hindi speaking belt of India. Both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar represent a large chunk of the electoral battlefield of India and this survey gives a bird’s eye view of the political setting. The survey is done by Nielsen (India) Private Limited. UP and Bihar are large markets that have always had a very strong influence on the overall dynamics of the election process and have governed the shape of the mandate basis the finalized seat sharing formula.

The survey finding showcased that NDA is clearly leading in Bihar in the coming polls but they will suffer a jolt in UP. 

Mr. Avinash Pandey, CEO, ABP News Network said, “Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a lot of prominence in terms of the political presence not only because of its extensive population but as many members participate in the parliament and being the most dominant in terms of the large Hindi speaking population that has keen interest in the election process. ABP has been lauded as a preferred channel by the viewers for its insightful reporting that has been providing the ground reality from the hinterland keeping #deshkorakheyaagey.”

Survey Data Results for Uttar Pradesh:

Party

Actual vote % in the 2014 election

Actual seats in the 2014 elections

Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2019

Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2019

BJP

42.3

71

43

36

AD

1.1

2

INC

7.8

2

9

2

BSP

19.8

0

42

42

SP

22.3

5

RLD

0.8

0

IND and Others

5.9

0

6

0

Total

100.0

80

100

80

 

 

  • ·         Performance of the Prime Minster, Shri Narendra Modi has been rated as 'Good'.  However, among Muslim respondents, his rating is 'average'.
  • ·         Performance of the NDA led Central Government has also been rated as 'Good' with a mean score of 3.73.
  • ·         Corruption and Unemployment are the top two important issues in UP
  • ·         Maintaining Law & Order emerged as the top reason to vote for a party in UP. INC seems to be preferred for communal harmony, price control, welfare schemes and job reservation for backwards classes.
  • ·         Similar to the Chief Minister, the State Government performance has also been rated as 'above average'

 

Methodology: 

Sample Size details:

Release Date: 3rd April 2019

Poll Sample Size:  20,250

Poll Fieldwork:  16th March to 24th March, 2019

Sample spread:  *100 per PC

 

Survey Data Results for Bihar:

Party

Actual vote % in the 2014 election

Actual seats in the 2014 elections

Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2019

Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2019

BJP

29.7

22

52

34

LJP

6.7

7

JD(U)

16.0

1

RLSP

3.2

3

35

6

INC

8.5

2

RJD

20.5

4

CPI(ML)

1.4

0

NCP

1.1

1

1

0

IND and Others

12.9

0

12

0

Total

100.0

40

100

40

 

  • ·         Performance of the Prime Minister Modi has been rated as 'Good', the scores are higher among men and urban respondents.
  • ·         Performance of the NDA led Central Government has also been rated as 'Good' with a mean score of 3.92. Score is higher among urban respondents.
  • ·         Performance of the NDA led State Government has also been rated as above average. The score is higher among men.
  • ·         Corruption and Unemployment are the top two important problems that people are facing. The top problems are more pronounced among women and rural respondents.
  • ·         62% of the respondents believe that the sitting CM has made NDA stronger in Bihar by joining the alliance.
  • ·         The opinion seems divided, with 44% said Congress should not contest on its own whereas 38% says it should contest on its own in Bihar
  • ·         Nearly half of the respondents believe that the Muslim voters would go in favour of RJD whereas one third of the respondents think it would favour JD (U). 
  • ·         Opinion is divided with 40% believe that moving Giriraj Singh from Nawada would affect the voters in the constituency whereas 34% say it would not.
  • ·         Opinion is divided with 38% said that by leaving BJP, Shatrughan Sinha has done the right thing, whereas 39% think differently.

 

Methodology:

Sample Size details:

Release Date: 2nd April 2019

Poll Sample Size:  10,100

Poll Fieldwork:  17th March to 26th March, 2019

Sample spread:  *250 per PC in 38 PCs and 300 per PC in two VIP PCs – Hazipur and Patna Sahib

More News

 
More News
 
 
 
Photo Gallery
 
Videos